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(I also tried `pulumi state delete` on the provider URNs, in the hope that I could then recreate it from scratch, but that's forbidden because other state depends on it.)

:wave:
Can you see the URNs for the providers from the state file? You might be able to do a `pulumi up --target=provider_urn` to get just the provider state updated to the latest tokens, and then do a refresh to get everything else updated.

`up` saying there was no resource by that URN might mean you just got the URN copied wrong, or if these are default providers maybe they're not getting picked up by --target, which esh we should look into.

Yeah, I copy-pasted the URNs from the `pulumi stack export` output - just tried again with the same "no resource with that URN" result

They are indeed default providers, I believe

(I'm just going to tear it down and bring it up again)

I'll check that, can't see why default providers would be skipped from targets. Delete and re-import should at least get your state fixed up for now.

There are no shell metacharacters in any of my tokens, if that's what you mean

`pulumi up` worked, I just didn't want to do it before a `pulumi refresh` because my state was out of sync