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Could the "v" be the problem?

No

> pulumi plugin install resource aws 6.9.0-alpha.1699538295
[resource plugin aws-6.9.0-alpha.1699538295] installing
error: [resource plugin aws-6.9.0-alpha.1699538295] downloading from : failed to download plugin: aws-6.9.0-alpha.1699538295: 403 HTTP error fetching plugin from <https://get.pulumi.com/releases/plugins/pulumi-resource-aws-v6.9.0-alpha.1699538295-darwin-arm64.tar.gz>

there is no problem doing

pulumi plugin install resource aws v6.10.0

Why are you using 6.9 alpha if 6.10 is out?

Would that make a difference?

If 6.9 alpha has been undeployed or accidentally partially deployed, it might...

Moving to 6.10 fixed it. It is also broken on 6.11 alpha. Might just be a problem with alpha versions.