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Looks like it might be related to this: <https://github.com/pulumi/pulumi/issues/3018>

Clues: <https://archive.pulumi.com/t/11900229/hi-there-i-dont-know-what-suddenly-happended-but-whatever-i->

More clues: <https://github.com/pulumi/pulumi-azure-native/issues/642>

More clues: <https://github.com/pulumi/pulumi/issues/6691>

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Got it! Using a `FileArchive` to make a `Blob` works; but the statefile is changed on `refresh` in such a way that the next `up` will fail. I captured the statefile before and after a refresh: