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If anyone comes across this, I figured it out.

In the `Pulumi.&lt;&lt;stack&gt;&gt;.yaml` I needed to skip credentials validation so the config looks like this:
```config:
  aws:assumeRole:
    roleArn: arn:aws:iam::&lt;&lt;Account_id&gt;&gt;:role/RoleName
  aws:skipCredentialsValidation: true```

oh, yeah, this is a new "feature" (bug) in AWS provider. Very unintuitive to debug ... even when I had AWS env vars set, pulumi complained