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can you confirm your access keys are still valid with the aws cli directly?

e.g. `aws s3 ls`

Yes, And cmds like aws s3 --profile my-profile ls <s3://my-state-bucket> works fine

I tried to run with --verbose 10 as well but no debug info

Can you confirm that state file exists in the bucket? `aws s3 ls <s3://my-state-bucket/.pulumi/stacks/test-stack.json>` or in the AWS Console

Yes it does and I can copy it to my local computer

I found the problem I was logged in to the wrong bucket I had done
pulumi login <s3://my-state-buckets> with an extra s instead of <s3://my-state-bucket|my-state-bucket>

The pulumi login cmd didn't respond with an error when I logged in to an non-existing bucket