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Does the file referenced in that error exist in your gcs bucket?

Yes, it does. I just updated the other thread about importing from the bucket.

I'm still seeing this error (after restoring state locally) so I think this might be a separate issue opened before <https://github.com/pulumi/pulumi/issues/2791>

Got it - yes - that does appear to be the same issue - will make sure that gets prioritized. 