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If I run the refresh command with the AWS_PROFILE environment var set, the refresh will work.

I suspect this is due to the point made in <https://github.com/pulumi/pulumi-aws/pull/894|https://github.com/pulumi/pulumi-aws/pull/894>. 

The profile you used at some point in the past was stored in the checkpoint. Doing an update should fix that. 

We are considering more broad changes along these lines in <https://github.com/pulumi/pulumi-terraform-bridge/issues/209|https://github.com/pulumi/pulumi-terraform-bridge/issues/209> which In principle would involve addressing this specific issue. 