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trying cloudtrail generated policies now.  would be nice if this was visible in pulumi though

even just a way to preview the AWS commands an update will issue would help

This looks like your AWS creds do not have permission to create an S3 bucket.
As part of the getting started sequence did  you use `aws configure` or environment variables to set up your AWS access?
Can you use the AWS CLI to create a bucket?
Something like `aws s3 mb <s3://bucket-name>`?

nope, creds were good. turned out it was a few missing perms where it wasn't obvious to me that they were being used

the challenge is having to wait for cloudtrail to log the requsts and then go through the logs to see what failed

thats why i was wondering if its possible to preview all the API commands pulumi is going to send for a stack

The --debug and -v=9 flags provide the maximum debugging from the cli. But as you noted it doesn’t give detailed API inspection.
That said, in case it helps, this issue includes some tips and tricks around attaching a debugger: <https://github.com/pulumi/pulumi/issues/1372>