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OK, turns out this was an old version of the AWS plugin. 4.37.1 returns a more sane error:

```    error: program failed: 1 error occurred:
    	* rpc error: code = Unknown desc = invocation of aws:index/getCallerIdentity:getCallerIdentity returned an error: could not validate provider configuration: 1 error occurred:
    	* expected length of assume_role.0.session_name to be in the range (2 - 64), got xyyyy...zzzzz
    exit status 1```