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The difference from machine to machine makes me think of authentication. Is reading the autoscaling group the first thing the program does? Or are there other AWS operations that succeed?

everything else succeed, the machine and credentials are the same that ran the first pulumi up for this stack
It looks like the whole operation is finished (including building the docker image and uploading it) yet the update is stuck (also no new logs written for more than a few minutes).
On another machine everything works fine.