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in case anyone else needs to do this, I tried-and-failed my way into finding a working solution:
```pulumi config cp -C [directory of original project] -s [fully qualified stack name in original project] -d [fully qualified stack name in new project]```
(fully qualified stack name being `org/project/stack`)

this will overwrite the stack’s config file in the original project with a new version which has been encrypted for the new project/stack, which you can copy to the new project directory and then git checkout to revert the original config file

seems a slightly weird/backward way of doing it, but nothing else I tried worked

update: seems like the above command will leave your new project using the secrets provider from the old project, which seems like a bad idea and actually caused an issue for me when I later renamed the new project - looks like this can be fixed/avoided by running this immediately after copying the config:
```pulumi stack change-secrets-provider default```