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Are you airgapped? You can download that file and unzip it to ~/.pulumi/plugins/resource-upstash-v0.1.2/

Ah, I see the problem. There is no version `%VERSION%`. Download from this URL: <https://github.com/upstash/pulumi-upstash/releases/download/v0.1.2/pulumi-resource-upstash-v0.1.2-darwin-amd64.tar.gz>

I don't know how that %VERSION% variable is supposed to be populated. It looks like you're not the only one with problems though:
<https://github.com/upstash/pulumi-upstash/issues/8>
<https://github.com/upstash/pulumi-upstash/issues/7>

One of those includes the workaround:
```pulumi plugin install resource upstash v0.1.2 --server <https://github.com/upstash/pulumi-upstash/releases/download/v0.1.2>```