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I'd lay odds on it being a false positive. You could try manually turning on the RDS protected flag on that instance (not the Pulumi on, but using the console to turn on the AWS protection), then run the `up` knowing that if Pulumi does try to delete it, AWS will prevent the deletion. Then you'll know if Pulumi really will delete it.

I don't know why it happens, but it does. Anecdotally, it happens more frequently on stacks that are updated only very rarely.

thanks a LOT <@U012UJTT55M>, very useful!