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My theory is that because my profile's region and source_profile are configured in ~/.aws/config rather than ~/.aws/credentials, it's not being picked up correctly.

I do remember having to set a variable in the distant past that said "use the config file as well as the credentials file", but I can't remember if that was an AWS thing or a Pulumi thing.

Has anyone got any suggestions for what I can try to get past this?

what's actually in your credentials file? are the keys in there?

the env var you're thinking of is `AWS_SDK_LOAD_CONFIG=1`

Keys are in creds file in profile X. AWS_PROFILE is set to profile Y, which is defined in confg with source_profile = X (and a role_arn).

That is the var I was thinking of, but it didn't resolve the problem this time.. will try narrowing down the problem to an MCVE.

Solved. I had 2 issues: a profile was defined twice (AWS CLI reported a format error, removing 2nd copy of the profile fixed that); and someone had deleted my IAM role (:face_with_rolling_eyes:).